Labour Market Overview, UK: August 2024

Tuesday, August 13, 2024

August 2024’s labour market figures reveal a mixed landscape: a continued decline in vacancies, a modest rise in employment, and a varied picture for earnings. Here’s a summary of the latest data:

Vacancies and Employment

The number of vacancies fell by 26,000 to 884,000 from May to July 2024, marking the 25th consecutive quarter of decline. Despite this, vacancies remain 11.0% higher compared to January to March 2020, indicating that while the trend is downward, current levels are still elevated compared to pre-pandemic figures.

In terms of employment, there was a slight increase:

  • Payrolled Employees: Numbers grew by 14,000 (0.0%) between May and June 2024, and by 227,000 (0.8%) from June 2023 to June 2024. The preliminary estimate for July 2024 shows an additional increase of 24,000 (0.1%) on the month and 252,000 (0.8%) on the year, bringing the total to 30.4 million. Note that this July estimate is provisional and may be revised.

The Labour Force Survey (LFS) data has become more volatile due to smaller sample sizes. Therefore, these estimates should be used alongside other indicators like Workforce Jobs and PAYE Real Time Information (RTI) for a comprehensive view.

Employment Rates

For people aged 16 to 64 years, the employment rate was 74.5% for April to June 2024. This represents a slight decline from a year ago but shows an improvement from the previous quarter.

The unemployment rate for those aged 16 and over was 4.2% for April to June 2024. This rate is lower than the previous year and has decreased from the last quarter.

The economic inactivity rate for people aged 16 to 64 years was 22.2% for April to June 2024. While this rate is higher compared to a year ago, it has remained stable in recent quarters.

The Claimant Count increased to 1.801 million in July 2024. This rise includes the impact of the Department for Work and Pensions’ adjustment to the administrative earnings threshold for full work search conditionality, which is expected to affect around 180,000 claimants over the next six months.

Earnings and Labour Disputes

Annual growth in regular earnings (excluding bonuses) was 5.4% for April to June 2024. Growth in total earnings, including bonuses, was 4.5%. This total earnings growth is lower due to last year’s one-off NHS bonuses.

In real terms, adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH), regular pay grew by 2.4% and total pay by 1.6% in April to June 2024.

Labour disputes resulted in an estimated 100,000 working days lost in June 2024, with most strikes occurring in the health and social work sectors.

Conclusion

The labour market in August 2024 shows a landscape of adjustment. The continued decline in vacancies and a modest increase in employment figures provide a nuanced view of the market. While the unemployment rate has decreased slightly and earnings growth remains relatively strong, concerns persist with rising claimant counts and ongoing labour disputes. Observing these trends over time will be crucial for understanding the full trajectory of the UK labour market.

Vacancies and jobs in the UK: August 2024

  • The estimated number of vacancies in the UK in May to July 2024 was 884,000, a decrease of 26,000 or 2.8% from February to April 2024.
  • Vacancy numbers decreased on the quarter for the 25th consecutive period in May to July 2024, with vacancies decreasing in 10 of the 18 industry sectors.
  • In May to July 2024, total estimated vacancies were down by 141,000 (13.7%) from the level of a year ago, although they remained 88,000 (11.0%) above their pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic January to March 2020 levels.
  • In April to June 2024, the number of unemployed people per vacancy was 1.6, unchanged from the previous quarter (January to March 2024).

 

Office for National Statistics (ONS), released 13 August 2024, ONS website, statistical bulletin, Labour market overview, UK: August 2024