The UK labour market in December 2024 presents a complex picture, with modest growth in payrolled employees and workforce jobs, yet ongoing declines in vacancies and rising unemployment. Earnings have shown strong growth in both nominal and real terms, while labour disputes and claimant counts highlight challenges for some sectors of the economy.
Payrolled Employees: Slight Increase
Between September and October 2024, the number of payrolled employees increased by 24,000 (0.1%), reaching a total of 30.4 million. On a yearly basis, this represents an increase of 140,000 (0.5%).
Looking at the quarter from August to October 2024, payrolled employees fell by 22,000 (0.1%), though the annual increase was more significant at 160,000 (0.5%).
Preliminary estimates for November 2024 indicate a slight monthly decline of 35,000 (0.1%), but a year-on-year rise of 76,000 (0.3%). These figures remain provisional and may be revised in the coming months as more data becomes available.
Employment, Unemployment, and Inactivity
- Employment Rate: The employment rate for people aged 16 to 64 was estimated at 74.9% in the three months to October 2024. This rate remains steady compared to a year ago but saw a small rise in the most recent quarter.
- Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate climbed to 4.3%, higher than the same period last year and up on the quarter.
- Economic Inactivity Rate: Among those aged 16 to 64, economic inactivity fell to 21.7%, marking decreases on both the year and the quarter as more individuals joined the workforce.
Workforce Jobs and Claimant Count
The total number of workforce jobs reached 36.8 million in September 2024, an increase of 73,000 (0.2%) compared to June 2024. Gains were observed in both employee roles and self-employment, reflecting a diversified labour market recovery.
The UK Claimant Count for November 2024 rose to 1.769 million, marking increases both on a monthly and yearly basis. This reflects ongoing economic pressures and the adjustment of employment support thresholds, which may be driving the numbers higher.
Job Vacancies: Continued Decline
The number of job vacancies dropped by 31,000 in the three months to November 2024, bringing the total to 818,000. While this marks the 29th consecutive quarterly decline, vacancy levels remain above pre-pandemic levels, indicating that demand for labour persists despite the broader slowdown.
Earnings Growth: Strengthening Pay
Wages saw robust growth in the three months to October 2024:
- Regular Pay: Average earnings excluding bonuses increased by 5.2% on the year.
- Total Pay: Including bonuses, earnings also rose by 5.2%.
In real terms, adjusted for inflation using the CPIH, both regular and total pay grew by 2.2%, providing workers with a stronger increase in purchasing power.
Labour Disputes
October 2024 saw an estimated 42,000 working days lost to labour disputes, reflecting ongoing tensions in some sectors as employees push for better pay and working conditions in the face of economic pressures.
Conclusion
The UK labour market continues to show resilience despite mounting pressures. Employment rates remain steady, and payrolled employees are growing year-on-year. Workforce jobs have also seen gains, underpinned by increases in self-employment and employee positions.
However, challenges persist. Unemployment is on the rise, job vacancies have been declining for 29 consecutive quarters, and the Claimant Count continues to increase. While wage growth is encouraging and real earnings are rising, the economic landscape remains uncertain, as highlighted by ongoing labour disputes and cautious business hiring practices.
Moving forward, monitoring the balance between employment, earnings, and economic activity will be crucial in assessing the health of the UK’s labour market.
Vacancies and jobs in the UK: December 2024
- The estimated number of vacancies was 818,000 in the UK in September to November 2024; this is a decrease of 31,000, or 3.7%, from June to August 2024.
- Vacancy numbers decreased on the quarter for the 29th consecutive period in September to November 2024, with vacancies decreasing in 9 of the 18 industry sectors.
- Total estimated vacancies were down by 136,000 (14.3%) in September to November 2024 from the level of a year ago; however, they remained 22,000 (2.8%) above their pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic January to March 2020 levels.
- The number of unemployed people per vacancy was 1.8 in August to October 2024, up by 0.1 from 1.7 in the previous quarter (May to July 2024).
- The estimated number of workforce jobs was 36.8 million in September 2024; this is an increase of 73,000 (0.2%) from June 2024, with increases in both employee jobs and self-employment jobs of 41,000 (0.1%) and 27,000 (0.6%), respectively.
- The estimated number of workforce jobs was up by 364,000 (1.0%) in September 2024, from the level of a year ago, with human health and social work activities showing the largest increase of 224,000 (4.6%).
Office for National Statistics (ONS), released 17 December 2024, ONS website, statistical bulletin, Vacancies and jobs in the UK: December 2024
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