Labour Market Overview, UK: June 2024
Tuesday, June 11, 2024
This month's labour market figures indicate that the UK labour market may be cooling, characterised by a continued decline in the number of vacancies and a rise in unemployment. Despite these trends, earnings growth remains relatively strong.
Employment and Workforce Trends
Short-term movements across various employment measures show a mixed picture:
- Labour Force Survey (LFS) Estimates: Recent months have seen a decrease in employment estimates from the LFS.
- HMRC's Real Time Information (RTI) Data: Estimates of payrolled employees have also declined.
- Quarterly Workforce Jobs (WFJ) Estimate: Provisional data for March 2024 suggests an increase in employment since December 2023, highlighting the differing trends captured by various data sources.
Due to these variations, it's advisable to focus on longer-term trends for a more stable understanding. Dataset X12, which outlines annual growth rates, suggests a steady weakening in the medium-term trend for employment growth.
Key Employment Statistics
- Payrolled Employees: Decreased by 36,000 (0.1%) from March to April 2024 but increased by 201,000 (0.7%) from April 2023 to April 2024. Early estimates for May 2024 show a slight decrease of 3,000 (0.0%) on the month but an annual increase of 167,000 (0.6%), bringing the total to 30.3 million.
- Employment Rate: Estimated at 74.3% for people aged 16 to 64 years in February to April 2024, a decline from a year ago and from the previous quarter.
- Workforce Jobs: Total WFJ increased by 431,000 annually to 37.2 million in March 2024, with gains in both employee and self-employment jobs.
- Unemployment Rate: Estimated at 4.4% for people aged 16 and over in February to April 2024, an increase from the previous year and quarter.
- Claimant Count: The number of people receiving unemployment benefits rose to 1.629 million in May 2024, up both on the month and year.
- Economic Inactivity Rate: Estimated at 22.3% for people aged 16 to 64 years in February to April 2024, higher than the previous year and quarter.
Vacancies and Earnings
- Vacancies: Estimated at 904,000 for March to May 2024, a decrease of 12,000 on the quarter. This marks the 23rd consecutive period of declining vacancies, though the level remains above pre-pandemic figures.
- Earnings Growth: Annual growth in employees' average regular earnings (excluding bonuses) was 6.0% in February to April 2024. Total earnings, including bonuses, grew by 5.9%. In real terms, adjusted for inflation (CPIH), regular pay grew by 2.3% and total pay by 2.2%.
Labour Disputes
In April 2024, an estimated 17,000 working days were lost due to labour disputes across the UK.
Conclusion
The latest data presents a complex picture of the UK labour market. While the number of vacancies continues to fall and unemployment rises, earnings growth shows resilience. Short-term fluctuations across different measures highlight the importance of considering long-term trends for a comprehensive understanding of the labour market's health. As we navigate these changes, it's crucial to monitor multiple indicators to gauge the broader economic context accurately.
Vacancies and jobs in the UK: May 2024
- The estimated number of vacancies in March to May 2024 was 904,000, a decrease of 12,000 or 1.3% from December 2023 to February 2024.
- Vacancy numbers decreased on the quarter for the 23rd consecutive period in March to May 2024, with vacancies decreasing in 9 of the 18 industry sectors.
- In March to May 2024, total estimated vacancies were down by 156,000 (14.7%) from the level of a year ago, although they remained 108,000 (13.6%) above their pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic January to March 2020 levels.
- In February to April 2024, the number of unemployed people per vacancy was 1.7, up from 1.5 the previous quarter (November 2023 to January 2024) because of falling vacancy numbers alongside rising unemployment.
- In March 2024, the estimated number of workforce jobs was up by 431,000 (1.2%) from the level of a year ago, to 37.2 million, with human health and social work showing the largest increase, up by 228,000 (4.8%).
- The total workforce jobs estimate rose in March 2024 by 297,000 or 0.8% on the quarter, with increases in both employee jobs and self-employment jobs.
Office for National Statistics (ONS), released 11 June 2024, ONS website, statistical bulletin, Labour market overview, UK: June 2024