The UK labour market in May 2024 presents a mixed bag of indicators, reflecting ongoing adjustments and volatility. Here's a comprehensive overview of the key statistics and trends:
Payrolled Employees
Between February and March 2024, the number of payrolled employees in the UK saw a marginal decline of 5,000 (0.0%). However, on a year-on-year basis, there was a significant increase of 288,000 (1.0%) from March 2023 to March 2024. Early estimates for April 2024 indicate a monthly decrease of 85,000 (0.3%), but an annual increase of 129,000 (0.4%), bringing the total to 30.2 million. These figures should be treated as provisional and subject to revision as more data becomes available.
Employment and Unemployment Rates
The employment rate for individuals aged 16 to 64 was estimated at 74.5% from January to March 2024, marking a decline both from the previous year and the last quarter. The unemployment rate for those aged 16 and over rose to 4.3% in the same period, reflecting an upward trend over the year and the latest quarter.
Economic Inactivity
The economic inactivity rate for people aged 16 to 64 increased to 22.1% between January and March 2024. This rise indicates a growing number of individuals not participating in the labour market, either through education, health reasons, or other factors.
Claimant Count
The Claimant Count for April 2024 rose by 8,900 compared to the previous month and by 29,300 over the year, totalling 1.579 million. This metric indicates a higher number of people claiming unemployment benefits.
Vacancies
The period from February to April 2024 saw a decrease of 26,000 vacancies, bringing the total to 898,000. This marks the 22nd consecutive quarterly decline in vacancies, although the numbers remain above pre-pandemic levels.
Earnings
In terms of earnings, there was robust growth with employees' average regular earnings (excluding bonuses) increasing by 6.0% annually from January to March 2024. Total earnings, including bonuses, grew by 5.7%. Adjusted for inflation (CPIH), real terms growth was 2.0% for regular pay and 1.7% for total pay.
Labour Disputes
March 2024 saw an estimated 22,000 working days lost due to labour disputes across the UK, highlighting ongoing tensions and challenges within certain sectors.
Analysis and Implications
The UK labour market data for May 2024 reflects a period of adjustment and volatility. While the annual increase in payrolled employees is a positive sign, the monthly declines in both March and April suggest caution. The rising unemployment and economic inactivity rates indicate underlying issues that need to be addressed to bolster workforce participation.
The persistent decline in vacancies points to a cooling in employer demand, which could be linked to broader economic uncertainties or structural changes in the labour market. Despite this, earnings growth remains strong, suggesting that those in employment are seeing their wages rise faster than inflation, which could help mitigate some cost-of-living pressures.
The increase in the Claimant Count and the number of working days lost to disputes reflect the challenges faced by workers and employers alike. Addressing these issues through targeted policies and support could help stabilize the labour market.
As the UK navigates through these dynamics, it's crucial for policymakers to closely monitor these indicators and adapt strategies to foster a resilient and inclusive labour market.
Vacancies and jobs in the UK: May 2024
- The estimated number of vacancies in February to April 2024 was 898,000, a decrease of 26,000 or 2.8% from November 2023 to January 2024.
- Vacancy numbers decreased on the quarter for the 22nd consecutive period in February to April 2024, with vacancies decreasing in 13 of the 18 industry sectors.
- In February to April 2024, total estimated vacancies were down by 188,000 (17.3%) from the level seen in the previous year, although they remained 102,000 (12.8%) above their pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) January to March 2020 levels.
- In January to March 2024, the number of unemployed people per vacancy was 1.6, up from 1.4 the previous quarter (October to December 2023) because of rising unemployment.
Office for National Statistics (ONS), released 14 May 2024, ONS website, statistical bulletin, Labour market overview, UK: May 2024