The UK labour market in November 2024 highlights mixed trends in employment, unemployment, earnings, and vacancies. While the overall labour force shows year-on-year growth, short-term declines in payrolled employees and job vacancies reflect caution in the business environment.
Payrolled Employees
The number of payrolled employees in the UK decreased by 9,000 (0.0%) between August and September 2024 but rose by 136,000 (0.4%) compared to September 2023.
For the period July to September 2024, comparable with Labour Force Survey (LFS) data, payrolled employees dropped slightly by 9,000 (0.0%) on the quarter but increased by 182,000 (0.6%) over the year.
Provisional estimates for October 2024 indicate a further monthly decline of 5,000 (0.0%), bringing the total to 30.4 million. However, the yearly rise of 95,000 (0.3%) suggests underlying stability. These early estimates should be treated with caution as they are subject to revision in subsequent updates.
Labour Force Survey Estimates and Volatility
The LFS data indicates increased volatility due to smaller sample sizes, making changes less reliable. To ensure a balanced view of the labour market, these figures should be assessed alongside other indicators like Workforce Jobs (WFJ), Claimant Count data, and Pay As You Earn (PAYE) Real Time Information.
Employment, Unemployment, and Economic Inactivity
- Employment Rate: The employment rate for people aged 16 to 64 was 74.8% from July to September 2024. This rate remains largely unchanged from a year ago but saw an increase in the latest quarter.
- Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate for people aged 16 and over rose to 4.3%, higher than a year ago and up over the quarter.
- Economic Inactivity Rate: Economic inactivity among those aged 16 to 64 fell to 21.8%, down both on the quarter and year, suggesting more people are returning to the labour market.
Claimant Count
The UK Claimant Count continued to rise, reaching 1.806 million in October 2024. This increase was observed both on a monthly and yearly basis, reflecting changes in employment support thresholds and ongoing challenges for job seekers.
Vacancies
Job vacancies fell for the 28th consecutive quarter, declining by 35,000 between August and October 2024 to 831,000. Despite this continued decrease, vacancy levels remain above pre-pandemic numbers, suggesting some resilience in the labour market.
Earnings Growth
- Regular Pay: Average regular earnings (excluding bonuses) in Great Britain grew by 4.8% annually from July to September 2024.
- Total Pay: Including bonuses, total earnings increased by 4.3%, influenced by one-off payments to civil servants in mid-2023.
In real terms (adjusted for inflation), regular pay rose by 1.9%, while total pay grew by 1.4%, indicating modest improvements in workers' purchasing power.
Labour Disputes
September 2024 saw an estimated 48,000 working days lost due to labour disputes, reflecting heightened industrial activity as workers negotiate pay and conditions amid ongoing cost-of-living pressures.
Conclusion
The UK labour market in November 2024 shows a mix of resilience and caution. Employment rates are holding steady, with annual growth in payrolled employees and earnings suggesting stability. However, rising unemployment, declining vacancies, and a growing Claimant Count highlight areas of concern.
While real pay growth offers some relief to workers, inflation continues to limit the full impact of wage increases. Businesses remain hesitant in their hiring practices, as evidenced by the sustained decline in job vacancies.
As the economy navigates through these challenges, monitoring the balance between employment growth, labour force participation, and business confidence will be critical for shaping policy and planning for the months ahead.
Vacancies and jobs in the UK: October 2024
- The estimated number of vacancies in the UK in August to October 2024 was 831,000, a decrease of 35,000, or 4.0%, from May to July 2024.
- Vacancy numbers decreased on the quarter for the 28th consecutive period in August to October 2024, with vacancies decreasing in 16 of the 18 industry sectors.
- Total estimated vacancies were down by 130,000 (13.6%) from the level of a year ago in August to October 2024, although they remained 35,000 (4.4%) above their pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic January to March 2020 levels.
- The number of unemployed people per vacancy was 1.8 in July to September 2024, up by 0.2 from 1.6 in the previous quarter (April to June 2024).
Office for National Statistics (ONS), released 12 November 2024, ONS website, statistical bulletin, Vacancies and jobs in the UK: November 2024
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