The latest figures for September 2024 suggest a labour market that is facing some challenges. Although employment rates have risen slightly and payrolled employees are up year-on-year, short-term declines in employment and vacancies, alongside a rise in the Claimant Count, signal a cooling trend.
Payrolled Employees and Employment
The number of payrolled employees in the UK saw a slight decrease of 6,000 (0.0%) between June and July 2024. Despite this, the year-on-year figure remains positive, with an increase of 203,000 (0.7%) compared to July 2023. The early estimate for August 2024, however, shows a more significant month-on-month drop of 59,000 (negative 0.2%), bringing the total to 30.3 million. This still reflects a year-on-year growth of 122,000 (0.4%). As always, this early estimate for August should be treated as provisional, with potential revisions next month.
Employment and Unemployment Rates
The UK employment rate for people aged 16 to 64 was estimated at 74.8% for May to July 2024. While this is a decrease compared to a year ago, the rate has risen slightly from the previous quarter, signaling some stability.
The unemployment rate for those aged 16 and over was 4.1% in the same period, lower than a year ago and down from the previous quarter. The slight dip in unemployment suggests that, despite the overall cooling of the labour market, some opportunities remain.
The economic inactivity rate, which measures people who are neither working nor seeking employment, was estimated at 21.9%. While this is higher than a year ago, it has also shown a modest decline in the most recent quarter.
Claimant Count and Workforce Jobs
The UK Claimant Count for August 2024 rose to 1.792 million, showing increases both on the month and year. This rise is partly attributed to the Department for Work and Pensions' ongoing rollout of changes to the administrative earnings threshold for full work search conditionality, which started in May 2024 and is expected to impact around 180,000 claimants over a six-month period.
In terms of workforce jobs, the total number in June 2024 was estimated at 37.1 million, an increase of 503,000 from a year ago but a slight decline of 28,000 from the previous quarter. Employee jobs specifically grew by 386,000 year-on-year, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 62,000, bringing the total to 32.7 million.
Vacancies and Earnings
The number of vacancies continues to decline, falling by 42,000 between June and August 2024 to 857,000. This marks the 26th consecutive period of quarterly declines, although vacancy numbers remain above pre-pandemic levels.
Earnings growth has also slowed:
- Annual growth in regular pay (excluding bonuses) was 5.1% for May to July 2024.
- Total earnings growth, including bonuses, was 4.0%, affected by the NHS and civil service one-off payments made in June and July 2023.
- In real terms, adjusting for inflation (CPIH), regular pay grew by 2.2% and total pay by 1.1%.
Labour Disputes
Labour disputes in July 2024 led to an estimated 42,000 working days lost, with the majority of strikes taking place in the health and social work sectors.
Conclusion
September 2024’s labour market data presents a mixed picture. Although employment and earnings have seen year-on-year growth, short-term declines in payrolled employees and vacancies, coupled with a rise in the Claimant Count, suggest that the labour market is cooling. However, continued stability in unemployment rates and a rise in workforce jobs reflect some resilience. The coming months will be key in determining the broader trajectory of the UK’s labour market.
Vacancies and jobs in the UK: September 2024
- The estimated number of vacancies in the UK in June to August 2024 was 857,000, a decrease of 42,000 or 4.7% from March to May 2024.
- Vacancy numbers decreased on the quarter for the 26th consecutive period in June to August 2024, with vacancies decreasing in all 18 industry sectors.
- Total estimated vacancies were down by 143,000 (14.3%) in June to August 2024, from the level of a year ago, although they remained 61,000 (7.7%) above their pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic January to March 2020 levels.
- The number of unemployed people per vacancy was 1.6 in May to July 2024, down from 1.7 in the previous quarter (February to April 2024).
- The estimated number of Workforce Jobs was up by 503,000 (1.4%) in June 2024, from the level of a year ago, to 37.1 million, with human health and social work activities showing the largest increase, up by 288,000 (6.0%).
- The total Workforce Jobs estimate decreased in June 2024 by 28,000 or 0.1% on the quarter, with a decrease of 92,000 (2.1%) in self-employment jobs and an increase of 62,000 (0.2%) in employee jobs.
Office for National Statistics (ONS), released 10 September 2024, ONS website, statistical bulletin, Vacancies and jobs in the UK: September 2024.
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